Nortilus Platform Update
Algo Model and Long-Term Portfolio
We've just rolled out two major additions to the Nortilus premium platform — and within 24 hours of going live, the Algo Model's signals were already doing their job.
What’s New
The Algo Model
The core idea is simple: Nortilus builds earnings forecasts from the ground up —combining vessel-level fleet valuations, active charter contracts and TC exposure, current spot rates, and operating cost structures drawn from public filings.
Those forecasts frequently diverge from Wall Street consensus. The Algo Model turns that divergence into directional trades around earnings events.
The logic:
Long when our EPS forecast exceeds consensus
Short when our EPS forecast falls below consensus
The strategy exploits Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) — the well-documented tendency for stocks to continue moving in the direction of an earnings surprise after the announcement date.
Performance since February 2023:
Over the same period, the S&P 500 (SPY) returned roughly +65%. The model’s equity curve has compounded steadily through both the backtest period (Feb 2023 – Q3 2025) and into live trading (Q4 2025 onwards), with the most recent quarters showing the steepest acceleration.
Full backtests, quarter-level statistics, and live signals are now available inside the Nortilus platform.
The Long-Term Portfolio
Alongside the Algo Model, we’ve added a Long-Term Portfolio tracking our core structural shipping and offshore positions. This is updated roughly quarterly and reflects the higher-conviction, longer-duration side of the Nortilus strategy — companies where the bottom-up thesis is strongest and the setup extends beyond a single earnings catalyst.
Think of the Algo Model as the tactical layer, and the Long-Term Portfolio as the strategic one.
Trading Model Portfolio
We also have our existing Trading Model Portfolio which is also worth noting for context: as of end-February 2026, it is up +27.48% YTD.
The Signals Work. Yesterday Was a Good Example.
Hours after the Algo Model went live with its current signals, the market provided an immediate test.
Three active short positions as of March 11–12:
Yesterday’s moves:
Navigator Gas (NVGS) –11.55%
D’Amico International Shipping (DIS.MI/DMCOF) –7.5%
United Maritime (USEA) –3.37%
Not a bad day to follow the signals.
Why the Models Work: Built From the Ground Up
Shipping equities are unusually well-suited to this kind of bottom-up modeling. Revenue is highly predictable if you know the fleet composition, the charter coverage, the TC rate inputs, and the spot rate exposure. Most consensus estimates rely on simplified, top-down assumptions. Ours don’t.
Across 334 completed earnings events in our database, 63% of our EPS estimates have beaten consensus accuracy — meaning our number was closer to the actual result than the Street’s was.
The data stack that powers this includes:
EPS Consensus Tracking — how Street estimates evolve week by week ahead of each earnings event, with divergence to Nortilus highlighted.
Shipping Rate Data — TC rates, spot rates, and period charter trends across tanker, dry bulk, container, LPG, and offshore; historical series for cycle analysis.
Vessel Asset Values — up-to-date valuations by vessel type, size, and age; essential for NAV modelling.
Commodity & Macro Data — macro context for shipping cycle and valuation work.
Research & Reports — deep-dive company notes, earnings previews, and weekly market commentary.
Broker Data (coming soon) — spot and TC fixtures, independent asset valuations and S&P transaction from a new partnership, integrated directly into the platform.
What’s Coming
The roadmap for the next few months:
Expanding company coverage across the shipping and offshore universe
Building a dedicated offshore trading model as our dataset matures
Integrating proprietary broker data from the new partnership
Our goal is straightforward: make Nortilus the leading data and research platform for shipping and offshore equities — institutional-grade analysis accessible to anyone serious about the sector.
Start a Free Trial
If you want access to the Algo Model signals, the Long-Term Portfolio, the full earnings model database, and the data stack — start a free trial at nortilus.com.
40+ companies covered. 1,900+ vessels modelled. Live earnings forecasts.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this report and on the Nortilus platform is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It should not be interpreted as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice, nor should it be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.
Investing in securities involves significant risk, including the potential loss of your entire investment. You are solely responsible for conducting your own independent research and seeking guidance from qualified, licensed financial professionals before making any investment decisions.
Although Nortilus strives to source information from what it believes to be reliable outlets, we cannot guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information or analysis presented. Errors and omissions may occur, and all content is subject to change without notice.
Nortilus, its affiliates, and its principals may hold positions (long or short) in the securities or instruments mentioned and may initiate or exit such positions at any time, including within 48 hours of publication.
By accessing this report or using the Nortilus platform, you acknowledge and agree that:
- You understand the limitations of the data and analysis provided by Nortilus.
- You will not treat the information as personalized financial advice.
- You assume full responsibility for any investment decisions you make.
Nortilus and its principals shall not be held liable for any losses or damages—direct, indirect, or consequential—arising from your use of or reliance on the information provided through our reports, website, or forums.